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Daily Economic Update
18.11.2025
Egypt: Remittances power ahead, setting the stage for a record-breaking year. Remittances from Egyptians working abroad jumped 45% y/y to $30.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025 (January – September), up from $20.8 billion in the same period last year, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. September alone recorded $3.6 billion, rising nearly 31% y/y from $2.7 billion in September 2024. This strong momentum aligns with our earlier expectations that monthly inflows would remain comfortably above the $3 billion mark. With three months remaining in the year, we continue to anticipate that total remittances for 2025 will land in the $ 39–41 billion range. The remittance picture has strengthened this year amid improved confidence in Egypt’s macroeconomic outlook supported by stronger reserves, a more stable exchange rate, and higher yields on local assets, encouraging expats to channel more savings home. Meanwhile, last year’s sharp devaluation reduced parallel-market distortions, making official remittance channels more attractive.
UAE: Dubai inflation rise to a 14-month high in October. Consumer price inflation in Dubai rose to 3.4% y/y (0.6% m/m) in October, its highest level since August 2024, and up from 2.9% in September. This increase was driven by the transport segment (9.3% of the consumer basket), which saw price rises accelerate to 4.7% y/y from 0.8% the previous month, due to higher fuel pump prices (+3% y/y). On the other hand, in the housing segment, price rises continued their moderating trajectory, slowing to 5.5% y/y in October from their historical peak of 7.4% recorded in the first two months of the year. Meanwhile, tobacco (3.7% y/y), clothing and footwear (1%), healthcare (1.4%), information and communication (-0.1%), and education (2.5%) were stable during October compared to the previous month. We see CPI inflation in the UAE overall at a lower 1.5% on average in 2025, helped by much lower inflation rates to date in Abu Dhabi (0.2% y/y as of September).
Oman: Inflation accelerated to 1.5% y/y in October, the highest in two years. Inflation accelerated to 1.5% y/y in October (0.4% m/m), marking its fastest pace since September 2023, according to the National Center for Statistics and Information. The uptick was mainly driven by a sharp increase in prices of miscellaneous goods & services (+8.8% vs. 7.6% in September), followed by higher costs in restaurants and hotels (2.7% vs. 2.6%). Meanwhile, transportation inflation eased slightly to 3.9% (from 4.5%), but this was offset by a rebound in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices (+0.4% vs. -0.5% previously), the second-largest CPI component with a 21% weight. These four categories together account for roughly half of the CPI basket and were the main contributors to the overall rise in consumer prices. Only recreation and culture recorded a decline (-0.3%). Despite October’s acceleration, Oman’s average inflation for January–October stood at 0.9%, keeping price pressures within a low-to-moderate range.
US: Mixed signals in the latest Fed speak despite evolving general hawkishness. Fed Governor Christopher Waller (among the shortlisted Fed chair candidates) continued to support an interest rate cut at the FOMC December meeting, seeing a “still weak and near stall speed” labor market. He highlighted that inflation was unlikely to accelerate given “slower economic growth and the prospect of only modest wage increases from the weak labor market,” noting “relatively small effects from tariffs” on price rises. Importantly, he mentioned that despite the lack of official data releases amid the government shutdown, “policymakers and forecasters are not flying blind or in a fog,” as private and some public sector data/surveys could help fill the gap. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair and Governor Philip Jefferson pitched “to proceed slowly” as the policymakers “approach the neutral rate.” Nonetheless, he also acknowledged “increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently,” relying on incoming data to determine his stance going forward. Overall, the recent commentary from several Fed officials indicates a widening divergence about further monetary policy easing amid different views about the job market and inflation outlooks. For now, the chorus from hawks seems louder than from doves with market pricing sharply lowering the rate cut probability in December from almost 95% in October to around 43% currently. Still, the FOMC meeting on the 9th and 10th of December would be a live one as the upcoming job reports (September-November) could alter or reinforce participants’ views.
Eurozone: European Commission forecasts Eurozone growth at 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Eurozone growth has exceeded expectations this year, with some degree of momentum persisting, according to the European Commission’s Autumn Economic Forecast. Output is now expected to rise by 1.3% in 2025, an upward revision from May, while growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2026 (revised down from 1.4% previously) and 1.4% in 2027. The Commission cites strong domestic demand as the key driver, offsetting external challenges. However, tariff barriers from the US and uncertainty around trade and industrial policy under the Trump administration remain significant risks going into next year. Meanwhile, investment is expected to strengthen, led by non-residential construction and equipment spending. On the policy front, the ECB has kept its key interest rate at 2% for the past few meetings, signaling no imminent cut. Overall, while near-term growth prospects are supported by consumption and investment, external headwinds underscore the need for careful fiscal and monetary calibration to sustain momentum into 2026.