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Daily Economic Update
17.11.2025
Oil: Prices close higher on geopolitical risk as Russian oil port struck by Ukrainian drones. A Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil depot and vessel at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk helped Brent gain more than 2.5% over two trading sessions and close the week up for the first time this month at $64.4/bbl on Friday (+1.2% w/w). Iran’s seizure of a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz also added further geopolitical risk, but the Ukrainian drone attack was of more significance given that Novorossiysk and nearby oil export terminals handle about 2.2 mb/d of oil equivalent to 2% of global oil supply. The spike in geopolitical risk was fortuitous for oil, having lost almost 4% in one day last week on the back of market concerns about a developing oil surplus amid rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC supply and softer demand, as reported by the major oil forecasting agencies. The International Energy Agency (IEA), reporting after OPEC published its monthly oil market report, estimated that global oil supply had increased by a ‘massive’ 6.2 mb/d this year and global observed oil inventories by a sizeable 313 mb (+1.15 mb/d on average) to their highest level in more than four years in September, though much of the increase in oil on water stocks is due to sanctioned cargoes awaiting buyers. The IEA did, however, upgrade slightly its oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 from their previous estimates, but at 0.79 mb/d and 0.77 mb/d, respectively, these are still historically weak rates of growth. That said, the IEA did acknowledge that there were ‘plentiful’ risks to its outlook, from global trade tariff frictions and the US government shutdown (since partially resolved), which could weaken oil consumption, and from new Russian sanctions, which could negatively affect the supply side.
Qatar: Budget deficit widens in Q3 2025. Official figures reveal that the government recorded its third consecutive fiscal deficit this year in Q3 2025, widening to QR1.43 billion, almost double the shortfall logged in Q2 but still less than 1% of pro-rated GDP. The drop was fueled by a sharp 35% y/y contraction in non-hydrocarbon revenues, though oil & gas receipts rose 2% y/y, lessening the decline in total revenues to just 4% y/y. Meanwhile, government expenditures also fell 1% y/y, weighed by steep declines on both major and minor capital spending, though salaries and other current expenditures notched annual growth. To cover the deficit, the government issued debt, a trend that will likely continue in the near term with energy prices on the backfoot and while the debt-to-GDP ratio remains at a sustainable level of roughly 40%. The small deficits will unlikely shift the calculus behind the government’s spending operations, especially when taking into account the large revenue windfalls expected from the completion of the expansion works on the North Field East project late next year.
Egypt: Unemployment rises slightly in Q3 2025 but remains below last year’s levels. Egypt’s unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in Q3 2025, up from 6.1% in the previous quarter, reversing a three-quarter downward trend, according to CAPMAS. Despite the uptick, the rate remains below last year’s 6.7%. The rise is largely seasonal, reflecting the annual surge in fresh graduates entering the labor market. The labor force expanded by 3.3% q/q, adding over 1 million new participants to reach 34.7 million people. Of these, 939k secured employment, while 175k remained jobless. Urban areas saw the sharpest increase, with unemployment rising to 10.1% (from 9.7%), whereas rural unemployment stayed low at 3.6%. A notable structural shift emerged as salaried employment rose to 68.8% of total jobs, while self-employment dropped to 19.2%, reflecting a gradual formalization of the labor market. The gender gap persists: although female unemployment eased to 15% (from 15.8%), it remains significantly higher than male unemployment, which stood at 4% in Q3 2025.
GCC: The Gulf Cooperation Council launches pilot phase of one-stop travel system to boost regional mobility. The GCC Council has approved the first phase of its “One-Stop Shop” travel system, designed to streamline travel procedures for Gulf nationals by consolidating all requirements at a single point. The GCC Secretary General, Jassem Al-Budaiwi, announced that the pilot phase will commence in December for air travel between the UAE and Bahrain, with plans to expand across all member states once infrastructure is ready. The decision was made during the 42nd GCC Interior Ministers’ meeting, which also endorsed a comprehensive Gulf Security Strategy for Combating Money Laundering (2026–2030) and introduced a unified electronic system for traffic violations across the region. The One-Stop travel system is expected to boost tourism by simplifying travel processes, reducing wait times, and enhancing convenience for Gulf nationals, thereby encouraging greater intra-regional mobility and leisure travel.
Japan: Economy shrinks in Q3, but less than expected. Japanese GDP reversed course in the third quarter, declining 0.4% q/q and the first fall since Q1 2024. Despite that, growth beat consensus estimates of a 0.6% q/q drop as capital expenditures came slightly above estimates. Housing investment significantly declined in Q3, falling 9.4% q/q (vs. +0.3% in Q2) as construction front-loading ended following the implementation of new housing laws in the country. Likewise, US tariffs also contributed to the decline, with Japan’s overall exports down 1.2% q/q in Q3 (vs. a 2.3% increase in Q2) as the country scaled back exports to the United States. The US-Japan trade deal is expected to provide relief in that area after the implementation of the 15% baseline tariff, down from an initial 25%. Growth in private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, slowed down in Q3 to 0.1% q/q from 0.4% in the previous quarter. The GDP data comes as PM Takaichi works to prepare a stimulus package that could be worth around ¥17 trillion ($110 billion) designed to counter the high cost of living and encourage investment in key areas, which is expected to provide a positive boost to the economy in the coming quarters.
Global: The September jobs report in the US, October inflation in the UK/Japan, and global PMIs key data releases this week. In the US, the September jobs report is eagerly awaited and will be out on Thursday (20 November), delayed from 3 October due to the government shutdown. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes for the October meeting will be released on Wednesday, which along with the continued Fed speak this week, should offer additional clues on the monetary policy stance ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. In the Eurozone, the HCOB PMI for November is due on Friday with expectations for the manufacturing gauge to increase slightly to 50.2 from 50.0 previously and the services gauge to remain unchanged at 53. In the UK, October CPI inflation is due on Wednesday, and the consensus forecast indicates easing headline (to 3.6% y/y from September’s 3.8%) and core (3.4% from 3.5%) rates. The S&P Global flash November PMI readings (on Friday) are seen weakening to 49.2 from October’s 49.7 for manufacturing and to 51.9 from 52.3 for services. Retail sales for October (Friday) are seen rising slightly (0.1% m/m) after September’s 0.5% increase. In China, the loan prime rates (LPR) decision is due Thursday, and while economic activity has been losing steam, the consensus view remains that the central bank will leave the one and five-year rates unchanged. Finally in Japan, October’s inflation is due Friday with the core rate seen rising to 3% y/y from 2.9% in September.